Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sold Less in 2025 Than During the 2021 Cycle — Here’s Why

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin long-term holders distributed roughly 15.1 million BTC during the 2025 cycle
• That figure remained below the 15.3 million BTC spent during the 2021 bull market
• Coinbase internal transfers involving around 800,000 BTC distorted some on-chain selling data
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury firms are reshaping long-term holder behavior
• ETFs now collectively hold around 1.3 million BTC, or roughly 6.7% of total supply
• Corporate treasury entities hold approximately 1.1 million BTC combined
• Analysts believe institutional ownership is structurally reducing aggressive cycle-top selling pressure

Bitcoin’s 2025 market cycle closed without surpassing one of the network’s most closely watched on-chain milestones: long-term holder distribution. Despite Bitcoin briefly rising above $100,000 during the cycle, long-term holders ultimately sold less BTC than they did during the 2021 bull market peak.

According to on-chain data, wallets classified as Long-Term Holders — typically addresses holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days — distributed approximately 15.1 million BTC during the 2025 cycle. That remains slightly below the 15.3 million BTC distributed during the 2021 cycle, which still holds the record for the highest long-term holder selling phase in Bitcoin history.

At first glance, the lower selling pressure appears surprising given Bitcoin’s massive price appreciation and new all-time highs during the cycle. However, analysts say the raw data requires careful interpretation because some of the apparent “selling” activity was not genuine market distribution.

One of the biggest distortions came from Coinbase, which reportedly moved roughly 800,000 BTC internally as part of wallet management and infrastructure reorganization. Since much of that BTC had been held long enough to qualify as long-term holder supply, the transfers inflated on-chain distribution metrics even though the coins were not actually sold into the market.

After adjusting for these internal transfers, analysts believe actual long-term holder selling pressure was considerably lower than headline numbers initially suggested.

The broader explanation, however, lies in how Bitcoin ownership itself is changing. Historically, long-term holders were primarily retail investors, early adopters, miners, and high-conviction Bitcoin supporters who accumulated coins through multiple market cycles. That profile is now evolving rapidly due to institutional adoption.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the largest new categories of long-term holders. Since launching in the United States in early 2024, these funds have accumulated approximately 1.3 million BTC — around 6.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Unlike retail investors, ETFs do not typically sell based on market euphoria or cycle timing. Instead, flows depend primarily on investor redemptions and fund demand.

Corporate treasury firms have become another major structural shift. Companies such as Strategy and other Bitcoin-focused treasury entities collectively control roughly 1.1 million BTC, representing close to 5% of circulating supply. These organizations generally follow long-term acquisition strategies rather than speculative trading behavior.

Together, ETFs and treasury companies now control an estimated 11–12% of Bitcoin’s supply. Analysts believe this growing institutional ownership base is fundamentally changing how Bitcoin behaves during bull market peaks.

Instead of aggressive retail-driven profit taking like previous cycles, institutional holders tend to operate with longer time horizons, stricter treasury frameworks, and less sensitivity to short-term volatility. This may be creating a structural reduction in sell-side pressure during major rallies.

On-chain analysts also argue that traditional long-term holder metrics may be becoming outdated as institutional participants increasingly dominate older wallet cohorts. Metrics originally designed around retail behavior may no longer fully capture the dynamics of ETF custodians, corporate treasuries, and large-scale custodial infrastructure providers.

The shift is leading to broader discussion about whether Bitcoin’s market cycles are gradually becoming less volatile as ownership becomes increasingly institutionalized. While volatility remains significant, analysts suggest the sharp cycle-top distribution phases that defined earlier Bitcoin eras may become harder to replicate under the current ownership structure.