FET Returns to the Starting Point of Its Last Rally, but the On-Chain Picture Has Changed

Key Highlights

• FET has fully retraced its March rally and returned to the original breakout zone
• The token is trading near $0.19 after falling from roughly $0.265
• RSI momentum remains weak and has not yet reached oversold territory
• FET continues trading below all major moving averages
• Binance inflow addresses collapsed by 92% over the past week
• Net exchange flow dropped by roughly 557%, signaling sharply reduced deposits
• Binance’s FET reserve has declined around 20% over the past 90 days
• Analysts say the market structure is now fundamentally different from March

FET has returned to the exact price region where its last major rally began, but analysts say the underlying market structure is no longer the same. While the chart setup may appear visually similar to March, on-chain supply conditions have changed significantly beneath the surface.

The previous rally saw FET climb from approximately $0.175 to $0.265 before the move was fully retraced. Price has now returned to the same breakout zone near $0.19, effectively erasing the entire advance. However, the technical environment surrounding the asset currently looks weaker than it did during the earlier rally phase.

FET remains below all three major moving averages. The SMA100 near $0.2015 currently acts as the nearest resistance level, while the SMA50 around $0.2179 and the SMA200 near $0.2232 have converged into a heavier resistance cluster overhead. All three moving averages continue trending downward, reinforcing broader bearish pressure across the chart structure.

Momentum indicators are also showing deterioration rather than improvement. FET’s Relative Strength Index recently sat near 39, remaining below neutral territory and still above the deeply oversold levels that helped form the conditions for the March rally. Analysts note that while price has returned to the same zone, the momentum profile is actually weaker now than it was during the earlier reversal setup.

Despite the bearish technical picture, the on-chain environment has shifted in a potentially constructive direction. Exchange supply conditions on Binance have tightened substantially compared to March. Recent data showed Binance inflow addresses collapsing by approximately 92% over a one-week period, while total inflows dropped around 71%.

At the same time, netflow metrics fell by more than 550%, pushing exchange flows deeply negative. Analysts interpret this as evidence that far fewer tokens are being moved onto exchanges for potential selling activity.

The longer-term supply trend also supports the tightening exchange narrative. Binance’s FET reserves have reportedly fallen roughly 20% over the past 90 days, declining from above 340 million tokens late last year to approximately 235 million currently. This means exchange-side liquidity has become substantially thinner even as price revisits prior lows.

Analysts argue that this creates an important structural difference compared to March. During the previous rally setup, exchange reserves were larger and inflows remained active. Now, the market is seeing weaker momentum but simultaneously facing reduced exchange supply and sharply lower deposit activity.

The current tension between technical weakness and improving supply conditions has left traders divided on what comes next. Some believe the shrinking exchange reserves could eventually support a rebound if demand returns, while others argue deteriorating momentum may continue dominating short-term price action.

Market observers are now closely watching several critical levels for confirmation. A move back above the SMA100 combined with improving RSI momentum and rising trading volume would strengthen the bullish case that tightening supply conditions are beginning to matter. On the downside, a break below the $0.185 region without meaningful momentum recovery could confirm that weakening technical structure remains the dominant force in the market.

For now, FET sits at an unusual crossroads where price has returned to the same launch point as the previous rally, but the underlying on-chain environment suggests the market mechanics driving the next move may be very different this time around.