XRP Withdrawal Dominance Returns to February Levels but Market Structure Has Shifted

Key Highlights

• XRP withdrawal transactions on Binance have risen to 51.5% of total activity
• The current withdrawal dominance closely mirrors conditions seen on February 13
• XRP is now trading below the key $1.38 zone that previously acted as support
• The token remains below both its SMA50 and SMA100 resistance levels
• RSI momentum indicators continue signaling weakening market strength
• Analysts warn the current setup differs structurally from February’s bullish configuration
• Binance withdrawal dominance may indicate reduced exchange-side supply pressure
• Traders are closely watching whether XRP can reclaim the $1.40 region

XRP is showing an on-chain pattern similar to one that appeared in February, but analysts say the broader market structure surrounding the signal has changed significantly. According to recent CryptoQuant data, Binance withdrawal transactions now account for 51.5% of XRP transfer activity compared to 48.4% for deposits, marking the highest withdrawal dominance ratio since February 13, 2026.

The metric tracks the percentage of XRP transactions flowing in and out of Binance over a rolling seven-day period. When withdrawals exceed deposits, analysts often interpret the trend as a sign that more traders are moving assets off exchanges rather than preparing to sell them. Historically, increasing withdrawal dominance can suggest reduced immediate exchange-side supply pressure and improving accumulation behavior among market participants.

However, while the on-chain signal resembles the February setup, the surrounding price structure looks substantially weaker this time. In February, XRP was approaching the $1.38 level from below during a broader recovery attempt. The current setup is occurring after XRP has already broken beneath that same zone, changing the technical implications of the signal considerably.

At the time of analysis, XRP was trading near $1.3654 following a daily decline of roughly 1.8%. More importantly, the token remains below both its 50-day simple moving average at approximately $1.3947 and its 100-day simple moving average near $1.3993. Because the two moving averages now sit extremely close together, technical analysts view the area around $1.40 as a combined resistance ceiling rather than two separate support zones.

Momentum indicators are also showing signs of deterioration. XRP’s Relative Strength Index currently sits near 42, below the neutral 50 threshold commonly used to gauge bullish and bearish momentum. The RSI also remains significantly below its signal line, suggesting that negative momentum is continuing to strengthen rather than stabilize.

Analysts note that this type of technical configuration often produces a decisive directional move within several trading sessions. When momentum weakens while price remains close to key moving averages, markets frequently transition out of consolidation relatively quickly rather than remaining range-bound for extended periods.

Longer-term technical structure also remains challenging. XRP’s 200-day simple moving average currently sits near $1.71, substantially above the current market price and still trending downward. Rather than acting as support, the SMA200 now represents a distant long-term resistance level that bulls would eventually need to reclaim to restore broader positive momentum.

Despite the technical weakness, some traders continue viewing the elevated withdrawal dominance as a potentially constructive signal. Previous periods of strong exchange outflows have occasionally coincided with accumulation phases, particularly when large holders moved XRP into self-custody rather than keeping tokens on centralized exchanges.

Still, market observers caution that withdrawal activity alone does not guarantee bullish outcomes. Large holders may also transfer assets between platforms, reposition liquidity, or prepare for over-the-counter transactions that do not necessarily reflect long-term accumulation. Analysts stress that on-chain flows must be evaluated alongside price structure, volume trends, and broader market conditions.

Discussions across crypto communities remain divided on XRP’s near-term direction. Some traders argue the market is approaching an important inflection point where reclaiming the $1.40 region could trigger renewed bullish momentum. Others believe the breakdown below key support levels increases the risk of further downside pressure if selling activity accelerates.

For now, traders are closely monitoring whether XRP can recover above both the SMA50 and SMA100 resistance cluster over the coming sessions. A sustained move back above $1.40 while withdrawal dominance remains elevated could strengthen the bullish interpretation of the current setup. Failure to reclaim those levels, however, may confirm that the similarities to February’s signal do not extend to the market outcome that followed it.